My first live Oscars, and who I think should and will win them in 2011

UPDATE: I won some, I lost some. Checkit. The answers below. If you’re in SA and waiting til you get home to watch, then don’t read this yet. Or don’t read the bits in green. Except this bit.

This will be the first time in my life I’ve watched the Oscars live, and the first time I’ve watched an awards ceremony in a cinema, and the first time I’ve dressed up since I came to California.

I was skyping with a friend in South Africa at 2am this morning and she asked “Oh, what are you going to wear?” And I said “The only thing I haven’t worn since I came to So-Cal”, land of flip flops and hoodies: a dress.

BEST PICTURE
Black Swan, The Fighter, Inception, The Kids Are All Right, The King’s Speech, 127 Hours, The Social Network, Toy Story 3, True Grit, Winter’s Bone
Should win: Black Swan
Contenders Inception, The Fighter, Black Swan, The Social Network
Will Win: The Social Network
WINNER: The King’s Speech Was very obvious from the montage they used in the lead-up, unfortunately.

Falls into my "has to win something" category.

ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE:
Javier Bardem, Jeff Bridges, Jesse Eisenberg, Colin Firth, James Franco
Should win: Jesse Eisenberg
Will win: Colin Firth
WINNER? Well, I got one right

ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE:
Annette Bening, Nicole Kidman, Jennifer Lawrence, Natalie Portman, Michelle Williams
Should win Natalie Portman
Will win Natalie Portman
WINNER: Natalie Portman

DIRECTING
Black Swan, The Fighter, The King’s Speech, The Social Network, True Grit
Should win: David O. Russel for The Fighter
Will win: Darren Aranofsky for Black Swan
WINNER: The King’s Speech (Tom Hooper) – I was way off. They were wrong, though.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Amy Adams, Helene Bonham Carter, Melissa Leo, Hailee Steinfeld, Jacki Weaver
Should win: Amy Adams
Will win: Amy Adams
WINNER: Melissa Leo took it. I was wrong, but it was worth it for her cringe-inducingly tearful, speech, and the hilarity of watching America overreact to what they call the F “Bomb” – thus disrespecting to bombing victims and porn stars alike and getting to be mother grundies while maintaining a hip veneer. So weird…

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Christian Bale, John Hawkes, Jeremy Renner, Mark Ruffalo, Geoffrey Rush
Should win
Christian Bale
Contenders Christian Bale, John Hawkes, Geoffrey Rush
Will win: Christian Bale
WINNER: Christian Bale : The Supporting Actor/Actress category is cursed. Leo swore, and Bale FORGOT HIS OWN WIFE’S NAME FOR FUCK’S SAKE.

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Toy Story 3, How to Train Your Dragon, Illusionist
Duh. Toy Story 3
DUH

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE
Dogtooth (Greece)
Biutiful (Spain)
In a Better World (Denmark),
Incendies (Canada),
Outside the Law (Hors-la-loi) (Algeria)
I’ve only seen Dogtooth and Biutiful, and of the two, Dogtooth is way better. I’d like to see the Algerian film win… but only from loyalty to my home continent.
WINNER: A Better World

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Mike Leigh – Another Year
Scott Silver and Paul Tamasy & Eric Johnson – The Fighter
Christopher Nolan – Inception
Lisa Cholodenko & Stuart Blumberg – The Kids Are All Right
David Seidler – The King’s Speech
Tricky… cause I haven’t seen Inception or Another Year.
Will win: The King’s Speech
WINNER: I called it.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Danny Boyle & Simon Beaufoy – 127 Hours
Aaron Sorkin – The Social Network
John Lasseter, Andrew Stanton & Lee Unkrich – Toy Story 3
Joel Coen & Ethan Coen – True Grit
Debra Granik & Anne Rosellini – Winter’s Bone
Should win: Danny Boyle and Simon Beaufoy for 127 Hours
Will win: Coen Brothers for True Grit
There’s nothing in this list that I didn’t think was brilliant – I’ve read most of them / seen them.
WINNER: The Social Network

Okay, I’m done. Cinematography-wise, I suspect True Grit will win. I don’t care who wins as long as it isn’t Biutiful or Dogtooth, not cause it wasn’t great in that respect, but because I don’t want to encourage Wankerism in film and because (in Dogtooth’s case) I like seeing people’s heads. WINNER: Inception… which is kinda weird. So many effects, it’s hard to tell if it’s a good call.

Editing… I find hard to judge. I don’t know what materials they had available. Someone who knows more about it needs to call that one. WINNER was Social Network, which makes sense. I mostly forgot I was watching a movie. Which is a sign of good, not bad editing to me.

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2 Responses to “My first live Oscars, and who I think should and will win them in 2011”

  1. The Burg Says:

    I agree with all but two
    I think Melissa Leo will take BSA
    and i don’t see Aranofsky (not oro 😛 sorry) getting love….probably Fincher for Director, even though i want him to win, because i felt The Wrestler deserved it a few years back.

  2. jeanbarker Says:

    I think I won the Oscar for “best original spelling” with Oronofsky. Changed it – thanks for picking that up 🙂

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